Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy Easiest Followed by live capital $481,000 Hypothetical

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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
Listing Edit Subscribers Broadcast More...

Buffalo
(137322205)

Created by: James_L James_L
Started: 09/2021
Stocks
Last trade: 766 days ago
Trading style: Equity Trend-following

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $100.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
-9.6%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(43.3%)
Max Drawdown
29
Num Trades
48.3%
Win Trades
0.5 : 1
Profit Factor
12.5%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021                                                        +0.1%+23.3%+6.9%+0.4%+32.4%
2022(21.9%)(6.5%)(20.4%)  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  (41.9%)
2023  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2024  -    -    -    -                                                  0.0

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.

Trading Record

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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
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Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
1/28/22 9:42 UBT PROSHARES ULTRA 20+ YEAR TREAS LONG 3,439 50.38 3/15 14:01 42.94 29.46%
Trade id #139144966
Max drawdown($25,139)
Time3/14/22 0:00
Quant open3,439
Worst price43.07
Drawdown as % of equity-29.46%
 ($25,591)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
1/4/22 9:30 UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP LONG 28 503.20 1/28 9:40 456.75 1.44%
Trade id #138805771
Max drawdown($1,566)
Time1/25/22 0:00
Quant open28
Worst price447.27
Drawdown as % of equity-1.44%
 ($1,302)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.56
1/3/22 15:58 CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS LONG 228 63.10 1/28 9:40 54.16 1.99%
Trade id #138798711
Max drawdown($2,058)
Time1/28/22 9:37
Quant open228
Worst price54.07
Drawdown as % of equity-1.99%
 ($2,043)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.56
1/3/22 15:56 ACN ACCENTURE LONG 18 407.18 1/28 9:40 329.86 1.47%
Trade id #138798657
Max drawdown($1,585)
Time1/24/22 0:00
Quant open18
Worst price319.10
Drawdown as % of equity-1.47%
 ($1,392)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.36
12/14/21 9:30 AVGO BROADCOM LIMITED ORDINARY SHARES LONG 22 634.44 1/28/22 9:40 537.83 2.46%
Trade id #138572566
Max drawdown($2,662)
Time1/24/22 0:00
Quant open22
Worst price513.40
Drawdown as % of equity-2.46%
 ($2,126)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.44
11/30/21 15:45 MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY LONG 121 71.84 1/28/22 9:40 72.22 0.66%
Trade id #138401872
Max drawdown($677)
Time1/28/22 9:37
Quant open81
Worst price63.47
Drawdown as % of equity-0.66%
 $44
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.42
11/30/21 15:43 HD HOME DEPOT LONG 43 401.51 1/28/22 9:40 363.92 1.87%
Trade id #138401849
Max drawdown($2,026)
Time1/24/22 0:00
Quant open35
Worst price343.61
Drawdown as % of equity-1.87%
 ($1,617)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.86
11/30/21 15:42 AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC. C LONG 110 157.59 1/28/22 9:40 107.62 5.28%
Trade id #138401838
Max drawdown($5,456)
Time1/28/22 9:37
Quant open96
Worst price100.75
Drawdown as % of equity-5.28%
 ($5,499)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.20
11/30/21 15:41 AAPL APPLE LONG 119 170.95 1/28/22 9:40 164.08 1.79%
Trade id #138401836
Max drawdown($1,934)
Time1/24/22 0:00
Quant open119
Worst price154.70
Drawdown as % of equity-1.79%
 ($820)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.38
11/12/21 9:31 QCOM QUALCOMM LONG 124 165.00 1/28/22 9:40 169.17 0.46%
Trade id #138173091
Max drawdown($492)
Time1/24/22 0:00
Quant open77
Worst price158.60
Drawdown as % of equity-0.46%
 $515
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.48
11/12/21 9:31 PFE PFIZER LONG 407 50.42 1/28/22 9:40 53.76 0.5%
Trade id #138173087
Max drawdown($622)
Time11/16/21 0:00
Quant open407
Worst price48.89
Drawdown as % of equity-0.50%
 $1,351
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.14
10/1/21 10:04 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 27 829.91 1/28/22 9:40 984.24 0.24%
Trade id #137617650
Max drawdown($250)
Time1/28/22 9:40
Quant open12
Worst price809.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 $4,166
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.54
10/1/21 10:02 COST COSTCO WHOLESALE LONG 43 448.93 1/28/22 9:40 506.92 0.32%
Trade id #137617584
Max drawdown($330)
Time10/4/21 0:00
Quant open39
Worst price436.17
Drawdown as % of equity-0.32%
 $2,493
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.86
10/1/21 9:59 NVDA NVIDIA LONG 86 204.28 1/28/22 9:40 255.51 0.73%
Trade id #137617439
Max drawdown($750)
Time10/4/21 0:00
Quant open86
Worst price195.55
Drawdown as % of equity-0.73%
 $4,403
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.72
10/29/21 10:47 MSFT MICROSOFT LONG 64 327.99 1/3/22 15:59 332.77 0.22%
Trade id #138005641
Max drawdown($279)
Time12/17/21 0:00
Quant open26
Worst price317.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.22%
 $305
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.28
11/30/21 15:47 NKE NIKE LONG 51 170.29 1/3/22 15:55 164.55 0.61%
Trade id #138401890
Max drawdown($755)
Time12/20/21 0:00
Quant open51
Worst price155.47
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
 ($294)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.02
11/30/21 15:44 INTU INTUIT LONG 26 655.26 1/3/22 15:55 631.50 1.17%
Trade id #138401855
Max drawdown($1,455)
Time12/20/21 0:00
Quant open26
Worst price599.27
Drawdown as % of equity-1.17%
 ($619)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.52
11/30/21 15:45 LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA LONG 19 454.48 12/14 9:30 398.28 0.85%
Trade id #138401866
Max drawdown($1,115)
Time12/14/21 9:30
Quant open19
Worst price395.79
Drawdown as % of equity-0.85%
 ($1,068)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.38
11/30/21 15:44 KLAC KLA CORP LONG 21 412.98 12/14 9:30 395.79 0.37%
Trade id #138401861
Max drawdown($479)
Time12/6/21 0:00
Quant open21
Worst price390.17
Drawdown as % of equity-0.37%
 ($361)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.42
10/1/21 10:01 TMO THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC LONG 34 569.40 11/30 15:40 633.30 0.12%
Trade id #137617537
Max drawdown($121)
Time10/1/21 10:07
Quant open31
Worst price560.43
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
 $2,172
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.68
10/1/21 10:02 CRM SALESFORCE INC LONG 71 272.22 11/30 15:40 284.96 0.24%
Trade id #137617567
Max drawdown($246)
Time10/4/21 0:00
Quant open65
Worst price266.14
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 $903
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.42
10/1/21 10:03 NFLX NETFLIX LONG 31 605.25 11/12 9:31 660.01 0.16%
Trade id #137617609
Max drawdown($162)
Time10/4/21 0:00
Quant open29
Worst price594.68
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
 $1,696
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.62
10/29/21 10:46 INTU INTUIT LONG 34 617.77 11/12 9:31 610.93 0.38%
Trade id #138005613
Max drawdown($483)
Time11/10/21 0:00
Quant open34
Worst price603.56
Drawdown as % of equity-0.38%
 ($234)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.68
10/1/21 10:04 ORCL ORACLE CORP LONG 197 88.83 10/29 10:44 96.24 0.11%
Trade id #137617723
Max drawdown($108)
Time10/1/21 10:21
Quant open197
Worst price88.28
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
 $1,456
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.94
10/1/21 10:00 DHR DANAHER LONG 59 297.32 10/29 10:42 306.04 0.21%
Trade id #137617492
Max drawdown($223)
Time10/12/21 0:00
Quant open59
Worst price293.54
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
 $513
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.18
9/13/21 10:42 QQQ2217R400 QQQ Jun17'22 400 put SHORT 1 41.63 10/1 9:55 53.28 0.93%
Trade id #137348394
Max drawdown($924)
Time9/20/21 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price50.87
Drawdown as % of equity-0.93%
 ($1,167)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
9/13/21 10:42 QQQ2217R440 QQQ Jun17'22 440 put LONG 1 71.07 10/1 9:54 85.29 n/a $1,420
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
9/10/21 11:01 QQQ2217F440 QQQ Jun17'22 440 call LONG 1 6.63 9/13 10:40 5.37 n/a ($128)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
9/10/21 11:02 QQQ2217F400 QQQ Jun17'22 400 call SHORT 1 18.96 9/13 10:40 17.48 0.02%
Trade id #137322475
Max drawdown($24)
Time9/10/21 12:38
Quant open1
Worst price19.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 $146
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    9/10/2021
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $100,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    950.75
  • Age
    32 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    29
  • # Profitable
    14
  • % Profitable
    48.30%
  • Avg trade duration
    46.4 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    43.31%
  • drawdown period
    Dec 28, 2021 - March 22, 2022
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    -9.6%
  • Avg win
    $1,543
  • Avg loss
    $2,949
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $77,876
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $77,876
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    0.50:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.6
  • Sortino Ratio
    -0.78
  • Calmar Ratio
    -0.647
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -35.75%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.03960
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    12.39%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    -9.6%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    76.40%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.89%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -0.096%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    0.09%
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    0.91%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    -9.1%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    47.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    10.50%
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    1
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $2,949
  • Avg Win
    $1,544
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $44,238.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    32
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $21,612.000
  • # Winners
    14
  • Num Months Winners
    4
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    500
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    15
  • % Winners
    48.3%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    66885.10
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    1114.75
  • Avg Trade Length
    46.4 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    765
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.75
  • Daily leverage (max)
    4.46
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.03
  • Beta
    0.03
  • Treynor Index
    -0.89
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.02
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.07
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.04
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -2.171
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.212
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.080
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.461
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.26433
  • SD
    0.43923
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.60181
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.54326
  • df
    8.00000
  • t
    -0.52118
  • p
    0.69182
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.86535
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.69802
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.82203
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.73552
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.76413
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.08125
  • Upside part of mean
    0.37403
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.63836
  • Upside SD
    0.24009
  • Downside SD
    0.34592
  • N nonnegative terms
    3.00000
  • N negative terms
    6.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    9.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.10027
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.26433
  • SD of predictor
    0.31140
  • SD of criterion
    0.43923
  • Covariance
    0.05832
  • r
    0.42640
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.60144
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.32464
  • Mean Square Error
    0.18039
  • DF error
    7.00000
  • t(b)
    1.24722
  • p(b)
    0.12621
  • t(a)
    -0.65875
  • p(a)
    0.73444
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.53884
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.74171
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.48996
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.84068
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.43950
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.32464
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.36051
  • SD
    0.46646
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.77286
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.69767
  • df
    8.00000
  • t
    -0.66932
  • p
    0.73893
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.04340
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.54378
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.98651
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.59118
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.91284
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.88015
  • Upside part of mean
    0.34760
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.70811
  • Upside SD
    0.21970
  • Downside SD
    0.39494
  • N nonnegative terms
    3.00000
  • N negative terms
    6.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    9.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.05781
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.36051
  • SD of predictor
    0.30612
  • SD of criterion
    0.46646
  • Covariance
    0.06086
  • r
    0.42622
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.64947
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.39806
  • Mean Square Error
    0.20350
  • DF error
    7.00000
  • t(b)
    1.24659
  • p(b)
    0.12632
  • t(a)
    -0.76291
  • p(a)
    0.76478
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.58250
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.88144
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.63183
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.83571
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.55509
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.39806
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.22239
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.26404
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.14587
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.26215
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    9.00000
  • Minimum
    0.73262
  • Quartile 1
    0.95112
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.03931
  • Maximum
    1.20223
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.85771
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.98103
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.01966
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.12410
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.08819
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.11111
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.73262
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11111
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.20223
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -2.30304
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.13423
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.13621
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.34500
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.31500
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.61902
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.40377
  • Quartile 1
    0.40377
  • Median
    0.40377
  • Quartile 3
    0.40377
  • Maximum
    0.40377
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.29436
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.28295
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.70076
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -1.07161
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.31217
  • SD
    0.26816
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -1.16411
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -1.15981
  • df
    203.00000
  • t
    -1.02721
  • p
    0.84723
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.38678
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.06135
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.38385
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.06424
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -1.51859
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.51676
  • Upside part of mean
    1.13407
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.44625
  • Upside SD
    0.17226
  • Downside SD
    0.20557
  • N nonnegative terms
    69.00000
  • N negative terms
    135.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    204.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.20924
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.31217
  • SD of predictor
    0.27289
  • SD of criterion
    0.26816
  • Covariance
    0.00258
  • r
    0.03527
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.03466
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.31900
  • Mean Square Error
    0.07218
  • DF error
    202.00000
  • t(b)
    0.50153
  • p(b)
    0.30827
  • t(a)
    -1.04795
  • p(a)
    0.85204
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.10159
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.17090
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.92044
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.28159
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -9.00804
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.31943
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.34828
  • SD
    0.26904
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -1.29457
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -1.28978
  • df
    203.00000
  • t
    -1.14232
  • p
    0.87267
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.51776
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.93173
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.51450
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.93494
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -1.66299
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.34527
  • Upside part of mean
    1.11947
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.46775
  • Upside SD
    0.16919
  • Downside SD
    0.20943
  • N nonnegative terms
    69.00000
  • N negative terms
    135.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    204.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17210
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.34828
  • SD of predictor
    0.27294
  • SD of criterion
    0.26904
  • Covariance
    0.00267
  • r
    0.03633
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.03581
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.35445
  • Mean Square Error
    0.07264
  • DF error
    202.00000
  • t(b)
    0.51665
  • p(b)
    0.30298
  • t(a)
    -1.15955
  • p(a)
    0.87620
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.10085
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.17247
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.95717
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.24828
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -9.72645
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.35445
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02826
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03497
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01502
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02989
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    204.00000
  • Minimum
    0.94575
  • Quartile 1
    0.99683
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00335
  • Maximum
    1.05858
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97850
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99970
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00043
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01703
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00652
  • Number outliers low
    35.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.17157
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97265
  • Number of outliers high
    26.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.12745
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02568
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.23025
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01292
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01376
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.43073
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02039
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02543
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    8.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00020
  • Quartile 1
    0.00132
  • Median
    0.00562
  • Quartile 3
    0.04616
  • Maximum
    0.42400
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00052
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00152
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02364
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.24794
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04485
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.12500
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.42400
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.28354
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.27412
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.64653
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.10561
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -7.83914
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.99696
  • SD
    0.28707
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -3.47288
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -3.45280
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -2.45570
  • p
    0.60528
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -6.27005
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.66276
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -6.25620
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.64940
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -4.14623
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.33510
  • Upside part of mean
    0.80192
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.79889
  • Upside SD
    0.16661
  • Downside SD
    0.24045
  • N nonnegative terms
    22.00000
  • N negative terms
    109.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.23136
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.99696
  • SD of predictor
    0.32279
  • SD of criterion
    0.28707
  • Covariance
    -0.00401
  • r
    -0.04327
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.03848
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.98806
  • Mean Square Error
    0.08289
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.49191
  • p(b)
    0.52754
  • t(a)
    -2.42427
  • p(a)
    0.63192
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.19326
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.11629
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.79445
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.18167
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    25.90760
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.98806
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -1.04000
  • SD
    0.28845
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -3.60553
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -3.58469
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -2.54949
  • p
    0.60911
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -6.40505
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.79269
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -6.39053
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.77884
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -4.24110
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.21492
  • Upside part of mean
    0.78836
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.82837
  • Upside SD
    0.16298
  • Downside SD
    0.24522
  • N nonnegative terms
    22.00000
  • N negative terms
    109.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17956
  • Mean of criterion
    -1.04000
  • SD of predictor
    0.32284
  • SD of criterion
    0.28845
  • Covariance
    -0.00393
  • r
    -0.04218
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.03768
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -1.03324
  • Mean Square Error
    0.08370
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.47945
  • p(b)
    0.52684
  • t(a)
    -2.52389
  • p(a)
    0.63701
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.02800
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.19319
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.11782
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.84321
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.22326
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    27.59900
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -1.03324
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03273
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03989
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02139
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04051
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.94575
  • Quartile 1
    0.99186
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.05858
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97383
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99926
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01222
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00814
  • Number outliers low
    18.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.13740
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.96396
  • Number of outliers high
    12.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.09160
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02921
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.49227
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02280
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02677
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.39929
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02581
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03127
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.42400
  • Quartile 1
    0.42400
  • Median
    0.42400
  • Quartile 3
    0.42400
  • Maximum
    0.42400
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -435423000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    84
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.79425
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.63654
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -1.50130
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -15.95810

Strategy Description

****Keep a closed tracking of this strategy.
****It is FREE to add this strategy to your Watch List or to start Simulate.

If you have questions about my strategy, feel free to reach me out by email [email protected].

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Main difference between our two strategies
………………..............…………...Buffalo………….........……Buffalo Q...............
Focus:…………...........…………US large-cap stocks…..US tech stocks.....
Equity holding:………….......10 to 20…………......……5 to 10...................
Average trade per month:9..…………..........………….5.............................
Average holding time:…....1.5 month……….....…….1.5 month.............
Average leverage:………......1.2…………………..........…1.4..........................
Return:....…………………….....Moderate……….....……..High.......................
Risk:....……………….........…….Moderate……….....……..High.......................
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

****Description of strategy "Buffalo" ****
Although this strategy only deployed on Colletive2 in September 2021, I have been back-testing, optimising, and tracking real-time performance of this model for years. I saw promising results. I know it is weak to say how good our strategy is without having a Collective2 solid tracking record. You may want to wait for six months or more before subscription. However, if you are reading, add this strategy to your Watch List or start Simulate, it is free to do so. Track it for six months and see the result.

1. Summary
This strategy focuses on large companies across all S&P500 sections and holds companies that have the most upward momentum.

2. Objective
To achieve an outsized return higher than SPX500 over the long term, with a lower maximum drawback.

3. System description
The theory behind this model is momentum. Stocks that have risen in the past tend to keep rising. Stocks that have done poorly tend to keep falling. Stocks that have the most upward momentum beat the market.
This strategy is fully algorithm based. It uses a diverse set of factors and multiple performance windows to rank assets from an asset pool. It only holds the top best-performing assets. The performance of each asset will be reviewed regularly. Generally, changes in asset re-allocation happen once a month especially on the last trading day of each month. At the time when there is no asset meeting its criteria, it simply holds cash.
To ensure best performance and avoid lack of liquidity, our asset pool is composed of carefully selected medium-large US stocks, index ETFs and Bond ETFs.

4. Key Features:
Fully algorithm based
Designed to scale up
Average 1.5 months holding time
Average 9 trades each month
Medium-large stocks and ETFs only strategy
Long-only strategy
AutoTrade (recommended, hassle-free) or manual.
Sophisticated risk management

5. Risk management
The following defensive strategy is used to protecting profits.
a. Hold and be patient. Keep a close eye on the market.
b. Close risky positions.
c. Reduce leverage
d. Add hedges to the portfolio, including Inverse ETFs and Bond ETFs.

Stop Loss is used and will be updated regularly as well.


********************************************************************************************************
FAQs
1. Should I copy open trades?
Yes

2. What is the minimum amount I should copy?
For AutoTraders, the recommended minimum amount is $20000 otherwise you may not 100% copy all my trades. Why? First, some stocks are not cheap. e.g. AMZN $3300/share, GOOGL $2800/share. Second, C2 AutoTrade rounds down fractions.
For manual traders, if your broker has fractional trading available, a minimum amount of $1000 will do, otherwise recommended minimum amount is $20000.

3. When is the best time to start copying?
The best time is now. You have to enter the market, in order to beat the market. As a long-term investor, the daily movements in markets will ultimately have a marginal effect on your returns.

4. Does this system need to be AutoTraded?
AutoTrade is recommended, hassle-free.
Manual trading also works.
As we know that AutoTrade is not supported by all brokers, you can copy my positions manually. Signals will be sent by C2 system-generated emails at the same time when I enter/close positions. You could simply copy my trade at market price. It is been back-tested that there is not much difference in returns between trading by using end of day price and trading by using the next day open price. Manual trading may have a little advantage which is you could 100% copy my portfolio if your broker has fractional trading available. Why? Because C2 AutoTrade rounds down fractions.

For manual traders, make sure you have C2 signal alerts turned on. Refer to https://support.collective2.com/hc/en-us/articles/115013734467-Can-I-receive-real-time-signal-alerts-

5. Do you short stocks?
No.

6. Do you use leverage?
Yes, average 1.5 leverage

7. Do you use Stops?
Yes, our strategy has a 20% Stop Loss at portfolio level, and will be updated regularly.

8. How do I set up Auto Stop Loss?
Choose "No custom stop loss. Follow strategy rules." (Recommended)
If you want to set up a custom stop loss, make it as more than 30% of every position. A stop-loss that is too small pretty much guarantees you to sell at the worst time possible. We use inverse ETFs and bond ETFs to protect our positions when necessary. Follow our strategy rules. Don't panic sell. The last thing you want is for your positions to be sold when the market crashes.

9. Which account type should I have?
Your account must have permission to trade stocks (Long) and ETF(Long). We may buy inverse ETFs (e.g. SH, PSQ) to hedge against market crashes but we DO NOT short stocks.
1). Margin account is recommended. (Recommend 100% AutoTrade Scaling)
2). Non-margin account including Cash account, Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or Self-Managed Superannuation Fund account (SMSF) also works. HOWEVER, as we know, these accounts don't allow you to borrow funds. As my strategy uses an average 1.5X leverage, please set your AutoTrade Scaling as 60% or under, otherwise, you may not copy all my positions or you may exceed your account limit.

10. How much scaling should I use?
1). For margin account holders, recommended Scaling= (the amount you wish to allocate / my model account equity)*100%.
Example:
Strategy’s current Model Account equity is $50,000.
You wish to allocate $40,000 to my strategy.
You might consider doing the following: set your AutoTrade Scaling to 80% = 40000/50000*100%.
2). For non-margin account holders, recommended Scaling= (the amount you wish to allocate / my model account equity)*100%*60%.
Our strategy uses 1.5x leverage, you cannot borrow funds and you do not want to exceed your account limit.
Example:
Strategy’s current Model Account equity is $50,000.
You wish to allocate $40,000 to my strategy.
You might consider doing the following: set your AutoTrade Scaling to 48% = (40000/50000)*100%*60%.

About Scaling, refer to https://support.collective2.com/hc/en-us/articles/115008510008-AutoTrade-Setting-Scaling-How-big-or-small-should-I-make-my-scaling-
Trade this strategy at Interactive Brokers

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2021-09-10
Suggested Minimum Capital
$25,000
# Trades
29
# Profitable
14
% Profitable
48.3%
Net Dividends
$500
Correlation S&P500
0.040
Sharpe Ratio
-0.60
Sortino Ratio
-0.78
Beta
0.03
Alpha
-0.03
Leverage
1.75 Average
4.46 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.