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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
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Micro crude oil
(143533591)

Created by: Aziz Aziz
Started: 02/2023
Futures
Last trade: 412 days ago
Trading style: Futures Trend-following

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $125.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Futures
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Buys when price goes up, and sells when price goes down, expecting price movements to continue. There are a number of different techniques and time-frames used, including moving averages and channel breakouts. Traders do not aim to forecast specific price levels; they simply jump on a trend and ride it. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
44.0%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(6.7%)
Max Drawdown
258
Num Trades
50.4%
Win Trades
1.7 : 1
Profit Factor
38.1%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023       +3.0%+2.4%+1.7%+4.2%+4.5%+6.3%+2.9%+1.2%(0.3%)  -    -  +29.1%
2024  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -              0.0

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 100 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
9/14/23 12:21: Rescaled downward to 96% of previous Model Account size
9/14/23 6:28 @ESZ3 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3.840000000 4538.62 9/14 12:15 4555.75 1.96%
Trade id #145819101
Max drawdown($1,008)
Time9/14/23 10:20
Quant open3
Worst price4528.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.96%
 $3,257
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $30.72
9/13/23 23:51 @ESZ3 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1.920000000 4530.88 9/14 1:50 4529.75 0.29%
Trade id #145818006
Max drawdown($149)
Time9/14/23 1:00
Quant open2
Worst price4529.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
 ($123)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $15.36
9/13/23 11:00 @ESZ3 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 0.960000000 4524.00 9/13 12:59 4525.75 0.54%
Trade id #145809723
Max drawdown($276)
Time9/13/23 11:52
Quant open1
Worst price4518.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.54%
 $76
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.68
9/12/23 9:42 @ESZ3 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1.920000000 4531.81 9/12 10:22 4524.12 1.43%
Trade id #145796946
Max drawdown($743)
Time9/12/23 10:22
Quant open2
Worst price4523.75
Drawdown as % of equity-1.43%
 ($753)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $15.36
9/12/23 4:06 QMCLX3 MICRO CRUDE OIL LONG 1.920000000 87.01 9/12 9:50 88.23 0.01%
Trade id #145794599
Max drawdown($3)
Time9/12/23 4:17
Quant open2
Worst price86.99
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $231
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.88
9/12/23 9:18 @ESZ3 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 0.960000000 4521.25 9/12 9:34 4529.50 0.78%
Trade id #145795874
Max drawdown($403)
Time9/12/23 9:34
Quant open1
Worst price4530.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.78%
 ($404)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.68
9/11/23 0:56 QMCLV3 MICRO CRUDE OIL LONG 1.920000000 87.34 9/12 4:06 87.68 0.05%
Trade id #145782968
Max drawdown($27)
Time9/11/23 4:38
Quant open1
Worst price86.81
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 $61
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.88
9/6/23 12:03 QMCLV3 MICRO CRUDE OIL LONG 0.960000000 87.22 9/7 19:47 86.70 0.15%
Trade id #145750403
Max drawdown($76)
Time9/7/23 13:00
Quant open1
Worst price86.39
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
 ($50)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.44
9/5/23 14:58 @ESU3 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3.840000000 4514.50 9/5 15:10 4510.75 1.4%
Trade id #145740895
Max drawdown($737)
Time9/5/23 15:10
Quant open4
Worst price4510.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.40%
 ($751)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $30.72
9/5/23 11:48 @ESU3 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3.840000000 4513.13 9/5 12:07 4513.25 0.39%
Trade id #145738851
Max drawdown($207)
Time9/5/23 11:53
Quant open2
Worst price4509.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.39%
 ($7)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $30.72
9/5/23 10:54 @ESU3 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1.920000000 4511.75 9/5 11:36 4511.00 0.17%
Trade id #145737390
Max drawdown($92)
Time9/5/23 10:58
Quant open1
Worst price4510.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
 ($87)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $15.36
9/4/23 21:28 @CDU3 CANADIAN DOLLAR SHORT 0.960000000 0.7354 9/5 10:44 0.7333 0.23%
Trade id #145732811
Max drawdown($124)
Time9/5/23 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price0.7368
Drawdown as % of equity-0.23%
 $194
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.68
9/5/23 10:37 @ESU3 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1.920000000 4503.25 9/5 10:43 4506.25 0.69%
Trade id #145737126
Max drawdown($368)
Time9/5/23 10:40
Quant open2
Worst price4507.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.69%
 ($303)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $15.36
9/5/23 10:25 @ESU3 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 0.960000000 4512.50 9/5 10:37 4503.50 0.86%
Trade id #145736944
Max drawdown($460)
Time9/5/23 10:37
Quant open1
Worst price4502.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.86%
 ($440)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.68
9/5/23 9:49 @MESU3 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 4.800000000 4506.25 9/5 9:53 4507.25 0.12%
Trade id #145736122
Max drawdown($63)
Time9/5/23 9:52
Quant open5
Worst price4509.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
 ($29)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.52
8/29/23 11:21 @MCDU3 E-MICRO CAD/USD LONG 1.920000000 0.73630 9/4 21:27 0.73530 0.04%
Trade id #145678055
Max drawdown($21)
Time9/1/23 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price0.73470
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 ($16)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.50
8/29/23 6:04 QMCLV3 MICRO CRUDE OIL LONG 0.960000000 80.65 8/29 10:01 79.64 0.17%
Trade id #145671048
Max drawdown($93)
Time8/29/23 10:01
Quant open1
Worst price79.64
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
 ($98)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.44
8/28/23 9:44 QMCLV3 MICRO CRUDE OIL LONG 5.760000000 80.51 8/28 10:48 80.52 0.27%
Trade id #145660937
Max drawdown($144)
Time8/28/23 10:17
Quant open6
Worst price80.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
 ($4)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.64
8/28/23 7:23 QMCLV3 MICRO CRUDE OIL SHORT 0.960000000 79.64 8/28 7:56 79.93 0.05%
Trade id #145658559
Max drawdown($28)
Time8/28/23 7:56
Quant open1
Worst price79.95
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 ($28)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.44
8/28/23 5:53 QMCLV3 MICRO CRUDE OIL LONG 0.960000000 80.27 8/28 7:13 79.64 0.11%
Trade id #145658224
Max drawdown($59)
Time8/28/23 7:13
Quant open1
Worst price79.62
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
 ($61)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.44
8/25/23 0:43 @NEU3 New Zealand Dollar SHORT 0.960000000 0.5901 8/25 10:03 0.5933 0.59%
Trade id #145638222
Max drawdown($317)
Time8/25/23 10:03
Quant open1
Worst price0.5936
Drawdown as % of equity-0.59%
 ($308)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.68
8/24/23 2:32 QMCLV3 MICRO CRUDE OIL SHORT 0.960000000 78.48 8/24 4:11 78.46 0.02%
Trade id #145622058
Max drawdown($8)
Time8/24/23 3:06
Quant open1
Worst price78.57
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.44
8/23/23 7:12 @MCDU3 E-MICRO CAD/USD SHORT 0.960000000 0.73680 8/23 13:03 0.73950 0.04%
Trade id #145611035
Max drawdown($19)
Time8/23/23 12:54
Quant open1
Worst price0.73970
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 ($20)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.74
8/23/23 7:14 QMCLV3 MICRO CRUDE OIL SHORT 0.960000000 78.49 8/23 10:14 78.58 0.05%
Trade id #145611045
Max drawdown($25)
Time8/23/23 10:08
Quant open1
Worst price78.77
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 ($9)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.44
8/23/23 3:35 @CDU3 CANADIAN DOLLAR SHORT 1.920000000 0.7379 8/23 4:03 0.7381 0.09%
Trade id #145610333
Max drawdown($46)
Time8/23/23 3:51
Quant open2
Worst price0.7381
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 ($68)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $15.36
8/22/23 21:53 @CDU3 CANADIAN DOLLAR LONG 0.960000000 0.7389 8/23 3:35 0.7379 0.21%
Trade id #145609360
Max drawdown($110)
Time8/23/23 3:35
Quant open1
Worst price0.7378
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
 ($109)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.68
8/22/23 21:53 @ADU3 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR SHORT 0.960000000 0.6450 8/23 3:33 0.6425 0.14%
Trade id #145609357
Max drawdown($73)
Time8/22/23 22:06
Quant open1
Worst price0.6458
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
 $227
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.68
8/22/23 8:47 @M6AU3 E-MICRO AUD/USD SHORT 9.600000000 0.6439 8/22 11:38 0.6433 0.05%
Trade id #145600412
Max drawdown($28)
Time8/22/23 9:21
Quant open10
Worst price0.6442
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 $45
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.48
8/22/23 5:50 @M6AU3 E-MICRO AUD/USD LONG 10.560000000 0.6459 8/22 8:47 0.6437 0.42%
Trade id #145599748
Max drawdown($225)
Time8/22/23 8:45
Quant open11
Worst price0.6437
Drawdown as % of equity-0.42%
 ($243)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.23
8/21/23 23:29 @MESU3 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1.920000000 4414.62 8/22 5:01 4425.88 0.05%
Trade id #145598605
Max drawdown($25)
Time8/22/23 1:34
Quant open1
Worst price4405.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 $106
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.80
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    2/9/2023
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $41,760
  • Strategy Age (days)
    621.88
  • Age
    21 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    258
  • # Profitable
    130
  • % Profitable
    50.40%
  • Avg trade duration
    13.9 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    6.69%
  • drawdown period
    May 09, 2023 - May 17, 2023
  • Cumul. Return
    29.5%
  • Avg win
    $310.78
  • Avg loss
    $188.54
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $58,022
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $58,022
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.67:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.21
  • Sortino Ratio
    2.51
  • Calmar Ratio
    10.636
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    25.96%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.03710
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    43.08%
  • Verified
  • C2Star
    1
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    44.0%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    0.30%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.61%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.295%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    21.0%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    99.72%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    602
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    955
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    885
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $189
  • Avg Win
    $311
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $24,133.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    21
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $40,401.000
  • # Winners
    130
  • Num Months Winners
    8
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    128
  • % Winners
    50.4%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    832.60
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    13.88
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.6 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    405
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    2.98
  • Daily leverage (max)
    19.19
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.04
  • Beta
    0.02
  • Treynor Index
    1.55
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.59
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -4.994
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.432
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.141
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.200
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.48243
  • SD
    0.12755
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.78232
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.35947
  • df
    7.00000
  • t
    3.08825
  • p
    0.00881
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.61706
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    6.79215
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.38307
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    6.33587
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    42.76420
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    44.09710
  • Upside part of mean
    0.49747
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.01504
  • Upside SD
    0.18304
  • Downside SD
    0.01128
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    2.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    8.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07577
  • Mean of criterion
    0.48243
  • SD of predictor
    0.13461
  • SD of criterion
    0.12755
  • Covariance
    0.00437
  • r
    0.25433
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.24100
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.46417
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01775
  • DF error
    6.00000
  • t(b)
    0.64416
  • p(b)
    0.27165
  • t(a)
    2.80250
  • p(a)
    0.01553
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.67447
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.15647
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05889
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.86945
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.00181
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.46417
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.46542
  • SD
    0.12158
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.82807
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.40010
  • df
    7.00000
  • t
    3.12561
  • p
    0.00836
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.64793
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    6.85256
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.41107
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    6.38914
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    41.16390
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    42.49640
  • Upside part of mean
    0.48048
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.01507
  • Upside SD
    0.17566
  • Downside SD
    0.01131
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    2.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    8.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.06753
  • Mean of criterion
    0.46542
  • SD of predictor
    0.13400
  • SD of criterion
    0.12158
  • Covariance
    0.00390
  • r
    0.23957
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.21737
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.45074
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01626
  • DF error
    6.00000
  • t(b)
    0.60444
  • p(b)
    0.28385
  • t(a)
    2.85226
  • p(a)
    0.01455
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.66261
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.09736
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.06405
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.83743
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.14112
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.45074
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01877
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03297
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00168
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00412
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    8.00000
  • Minimum
    0.99316
  • Quartile 1
    1.02312
  • Median
    1.04556
  • Quartile 3
    1.05570
  • Maximum
    1.11194
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99732
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.03669
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.05169
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.08443
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03258
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.12500
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.11194
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00684
  • Quartile 1
    0.00684
  • Median
    0.00684
  • Quartile 3
    0.00684
  • Maximum
    0.00684
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.58412
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.63775
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    93.19450
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    19.34320
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.45554
  • SD
    0.13963
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.26240
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.24886
  • df
    181.00000
  • t
    2.71908
  • p
    0.37471
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.88261
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.63351
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.87357
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.62416
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    7.47536
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    12.74510
  • Upside part of mean
    0.77667
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.32113
  • Upside SD
    0.12833
  • Downside SD
    0.06094
  • N nonnegative terms
    76.00000
  • N negative terms
    106.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    182.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.02967
  • Mean of criterion
    0.45554
  • SD of predictor
    0.12776
  • SD of criterion
    0.13963
  • Covariance
    0.00105
  • r
    0.05864
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.06409
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.39900
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01954
  • DF error
    180.00000
  • t(b)
    0.78809
  • p(b)
    0.47068
  • t(a)
    2.70462
  • p(a)
    0.40119
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.09638
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.22456
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.12267
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.78460
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    7.10790
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.45364
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.44554
  • SD
    0.13826
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.22248
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.20911
  • df
    181.00000
  • t
    2.68581
  • p
    0.37617
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.84327
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.59301
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.83439
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.58383
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    7.24714
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    12.50060
  • Upside part of mean
    0.76851
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.32297
  • Upside SD
    0.12645
  • Downside SD
    0.06148
  • N nonnegative terms
    76.00000
  • N negative terms
    106.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    182.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.02155
  • Mean of criterion
    0.44554
  • SD of predictor
    0.12776
  • SD of criterion
    0.13826
  • Covariance
    0.00105
  • r
    0.05926
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.06413
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.44416
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01915
  • DF error
    180.00000
  • t(b)
    0.79644
  • p(b)
    0.47037
  • t(a)
    2.67463
  • p(a)
    0.40225
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.09475
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.22301
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.11648
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.77184
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    6.94777
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.44416
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01227
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01579
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00303
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00665
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    182.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97525
  • Quartile 1
    0.99950
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00147
  • Maximum
    1.04887
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99546
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99993
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00039
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01153
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00196
  • Number outliers low
    16.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.08791
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98966
  • Number of outliers high
    31.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.17033
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01573
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.82383
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00403
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02553
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.49993
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00446
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01150
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    20.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00002
  • Quartile 1
    0.00054
  • Median
    0.00421
  • Quartile 3
    0.01045
  • Maximum
    0.04912
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00015
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00183
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00672
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.03171
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00990
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.15000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.04295
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.76698
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02979
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03087
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -1.96830
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.04966
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.05087
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.56059
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.60552
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    12.32720
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    19.09790
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    38.35410
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.48532
  • SD
    0.15283
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.17554
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.15718
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    2.24544
  • p
    0.40339
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.37113
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.96812
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.35894
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.95543
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    6.98341
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    12.06400
  • Upside part of mean
    0.83841
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.35308
  • Upside SD
    0.13874
  • Downside SD
    0.06950
  • N nonnegative terms
    55.00000
  • N negative terms
    76.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.02263
  • Mean of criterion
    0.48532
  • SD of predictor
    0.12012
  • SD of criterion
    0.15283
  • Covariance
    0.00038
  • r
    0.02079
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.02646
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.48473
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02353
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.23624
  • p(b)
    0.48676
  • t(a)
    2.23436
  • p(a)
    0.37788
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.19514
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.24805
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05550
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.91395
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    18.34300
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.48473
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.47340
  • SD
    0.15132
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.12855
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.11047
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    2.21222
  • p
    0.40476
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.32493
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.92048
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.31300
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.90794
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    6.74926
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    11.81750
  • Upside part of mean
    0.82890
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.35549
  • Upside SD
    0.13659
  • Downside SD
    0.07014
  • N nonnegative terms
    55.00000
  • N negative terms
    76.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.01548
  • Mean of criterion
    0.47340
  • SD of predictor
    0.12008
  • SD of criterion
    0.15132
  • Covariance
    0.00040
  • r
    0.02176
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.02742
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.47298
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02306
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.24723
  • p(b)
    0.48615
  • t(a)
    2.20217
  • p(a)
    0.37956
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01200
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.19204
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.24689
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.04803
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.89792
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    17.26300
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.47298
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01348
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01732
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00332
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00734
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97525
  • Quartile 1
    0.99993
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00169
  • Maximum
    1.04887
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99490
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99999
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00043
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01247
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00177
  • Number outliers low
    14.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.10687
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98921
  • Number of outliers high
    23.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.17557
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01670
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.70659
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00359
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01523
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.23105
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00595
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01223
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    16.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00002
  • Quartile 1
    0.00037
  • Median
    0.00121
  • Quartile 3
    0.00836
  • Maximum
    0.04912
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00008
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00068
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00326
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.03666
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00800
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.18750
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.04295
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -9.69893
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.03475
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03475
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -2.94208
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.06471
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.06509
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -309947000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    8
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.56973
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.65088
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    13.25070
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    17.75630
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    37.58320

Strategy Description

This system has been shut down.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2023-02-09
Suggested Minimum Capital
$50,000
# Trades
258
# Profitable
130
% Profitable
50.4%
Correlation S&P500
0.037
Sharpe Ratio
1.21
Sortino Ratio
2.51
Beta
0.02
Alpha
0.04
Leverage
2.98 Average
19.19 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.